Anticipatory action in the 2025 Pakistan floods: Multi-agency activations, early warning, cash assistance, and lessons for flood risk management

Abstract

The 2025 Pakistan floods provided an important real-world test of the country’s growing shift from reactive disaster response toward anticipatory action (AA). This study examines the anticipatory action (AA) activations implemented before the 2025 Pakistan Floods and documents implementation experiences, operational learning, and lessons from these activations. A qualitative case study approach was adopted, drawing on post-activation learning records, operational reports, and institutional reflections from organizations involved in anticipatory action activations. Early warning messages were estimated to reach more than one million people through government and humanitarian communication channels, while documented anticipatory action activations supported over 26,000 people through evacuation processes and provided anticipatory cash assistance to approximately 15,000 people. The documented activations supported preparedness, protection of essential assets and livelihoods, and community readiness; however, operational and coordination challenges related to communication, trigger harmonization, and institutional procedures were also observed. The findings highlight the growing institutionalization of anticipatory action in Pakistan and emphasize the need for stronger coordination, harmonized trigger mechanisms and improved information management.